Wednesday, November 6, 2019
The financial statement of BAE system analysis of company’s financial perform-ance The WritePass Journal
The financial statement of BAE system analysis of company’s financial perform-ance  Introduction The financial statement of BAE system analysis of company’s financial perform-ance  IntroductionKey FactsLANDAIRSEAHOMELAND SECURITYTECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONINFORMATION TECHNOLOGYBalanced Scorecard Kaplan and Norton describe the innovation of the balanced scorecard as followsThe Financial Perspective BAE Systems Plc.Key Recent DevelopmentKey benefits of buying this profile include,Why I Chose The Balance Scorecard To Calculate My AnalysisConclusion Related  Introduction BAE Systems is a global defence and security company with approximately 100,000 employees worldwide. The Company delivers a full range of products and services for air, land and naval forces, as well as advanced electronics, security, information technology solutions and customer support services. In 2009 BAE Systems reported sales of  £22.4 billion (US$ 36.2 billion). BAE Systems plc. (BAE) is one of the leading global defence, aerospace and security companies, providing advanced electronic, security, information technology solutions. The company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, and supporting military aircrafts, space systems, surface ships, submarines, avionics, radars, C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems, electronic systems, and guided weapon systems. BAE’s other operations include complex software development, advanced manufacture, and providing specialized training services. Its distribution network covers about 130 countries.(www.baesystem.com) 2nd largest global defence company based on 2009 revenues* Approximately 100,000 employees worldwide Global capability Customers in more than 100 countries 2009 sales exceeded  £22.4 billion * (: Defense News Annual Ranking, published June 2010) Key Facts LAND BAE Systems is a global leader in the design, development, production and support of armoured combat vehicles, major and minor calibre naval guns and missile launchers, canisters, artillery systems and intelligent munitions. AIR BAE Systems delivers advanced military air capability through major aircraft programmes in the UK, US and to many overseas customers. SEA BAE Systems has a breadth of capabilities and is delivering high performance through a range of warships, submarines, auxiliary vessel programmes and naval armaments HOMELAND SECURITY BAE Systems is well positioned to play a key role in this developing market, where protecting people, assets and infrastructure, and maintaining national security and economic stability are paramount TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION BAE Systems has a proud heritage of ground breaking inventions including Concorde, Radio communication, and the Harrier Jump Jet. In the changing world of defence and homeland security, technology and innovation are still at the heart of our business. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY BAE Systems Information Technology, based in McLean, Virginia, is one of the ten largest IT providers to the US government. Our aim is to be a recognized provider of managed IT Operations. (www.baesystem.com) Balanced Scorecard The balanced scorecard is a strategic planning and management system that is used extensively in business and industry, government, and non profit organizations worldwide to align business activities to the vision and strategy of the organization, improve internal and external communications, and monitor organization performance against strategic goals. It was originated by Drs. Robert Kaplan (Harvard Business School) and David Norton as a performance measurement framework that added strategic non-financial performance measures to traditional financial metrics to give managers and executives a more balanced view of organizational performance. The balanced scorecard has evolved from its early use as a simple performance measurement framework to a full strategic planning and management system. The â€Å"new†balanced scorecard transforms an organization’s strategic plan from an attractive but passive document into the marching orders for the organization on a daily basis. It provides a framework that not only provides performance measurements, but helps planners identify what should be done and measured. It enables executives to truly execute their strategies. This new approach to strategic management was first detailed in a series of articles and books by Drs. Kaplan and Norton. Recognizing some of the weaknesses and vagueness of previous management approaches, the balanced scorecard approach provides a clear prescription as to what companies should measure in order to balance the financial perspective. The balanced scorecard is a management system (not only a measurement system).(www.balancescorecard.org) Kaplan and Norton describe the innovation of the balanced scorecard as follows The balanced scorecard retains traditional financial measures. But financial measures tell the story of past events, an adequate story for industrial age companies for which investments in long-term capabilities and customer relationships were not critical for success. These financial measures are inadequate, however, for guiding and evaluating the journey that information age companies must make to create future value through investment in customers, suppliers, employees, processes, technology, and innovation. The Balance Score Card Frame Work Adapted from Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton, â€Å"Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management System,†Harvard Business Review (January-February 1996): 76. balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/AbouttheBalancedScorecard/tabid/55/Default.aspx The Financial Perspective Kaplan and Norton do not disregard the traditional need for financial data. Timely and accurate funding data will always be a priority, and managers will do whatever necessary to provide it. In fact, often there is more than enough handling and processing of financial data. With the implementation of a corporate database, it is hoped that more of the processing can be centralized and automated. But the point is that the current emphasis on financials leads to the unbalanced situation with regard to other perspectives.  There is perhaps a need to include additional financial-related data, such as risk assessment and cost-benefit data, in this category. For example: Growth stage goal is growth, such as revenue growth rate Sustain stage goal is profitability, such ROE, ROCE, and EVA Harvest stage goal is cash flow and reduction in capital requirements The following table outlines some examples of financial metrics: Objective Specific Measure Growth Revenue growth Profitability Return on equity Cost leadership Unit cost Financial Performance Of BAE System BAE Systems plc. (BAE) is one of the leading global defence, aerospace and security companies, providing advanced electronic, security, information technology solutions. The company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, and supporting military aircrafts, space systems, surface ships, submarines, avionics, radars, C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems, electronic systems, and guided weapon systems. BAE’s other operations include complex software development, advanced manufacture, and providing specialized training services. Its distribution network covers about 130 countries.(www.baesystem.com)  BAE Systems Plc.Key Recent Development Jul 26, 2010 BAE Systems, Aquamarine Power Collaborate On Wave Energy Mar 24, 2010 BAE Systems Plans To Develop Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus For Sun Line Transit Mar 16, 2010 BAE Systems Delivers First Hybrid Propulsion Systems To Alexander Dennis Under Green Bus Fund Initiative Sep 28, 2009 Oshkosh Bags New Deal From BAE Aug 19, 2009 BAE Systems To Provide Propulsion Systems To King County Metro Transit For 500 Hybrid Electric Buses. This comprehensive SWOT profile of BAE Systems plc. provides you an in-depth strategic analysis of the company’s businesses and operations. The profile has been compiled by Global Data to bring to you a clear and an unbiased view of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses and the potential opportunities and threats. The profile helps you formulate strategies that augment your business by enabling you to understand your partners, customers and competitors better. The profile contains critical company information including Business description A detailed description of the company’s operations and business divisions. Corporate strategy Analyst’s summarization of the company’s business strategy. SWOT Analysis A detailed analysis of the company’s strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats. Company history Progression of key events associated with the company. Major products and services A list of major products, services and brands of the company. Key competitors A list of key competitors to the company. Key employees A list of the key executives of the company. Executive biographies A brief summary of the executives’ employment history. Key operational heads A list of personnel heading key departments/functions. Important locations and subsidiaries A list and contact details of key locations and subsidiaries of the company. Detailed financial ratios for the past five years The latest financial ratios derived from the annual financial statements published by the company with 5 years history. Interim ratios for the last five interim periods The latest financial ratios derived from the quarterly/semi-annual financial statements published by the company for 5 interims history. Key benefits of buying this profile include, You get detailed information about the company and its operations to identify potential customers and suppliers. The profile analyses the company’s business structure, operations, major products and services, prospects, locations and subsidiaries, key executives and their biographies and key competitors. Understand and respond to your competitors’ business structure and strategies, and capitalize on their weaknesses. Stay up to date on the major developments affecting the company. The company’s core strengths and weaknesses and areas of development or decline are analysed and presented in the profile objectively. Recent developments in the company covered in the profile help you track important events. Equip yourself with information that enables you to sharpen your strategies and transform your operations profitably. Opportunities that the company can explore and exploit are sized up and its growth potential assessed in the profile. Competitive and/or technological threats are highlighted. Scout for potential investments and acquisition targets, with detailed insight into the companies’ strategic, financial and operational performance. Financial ratio presented for major public companies in the profile include the revenue trends, profitability, growth, margins and returns, liquidity and leverage, financial position and efficiency ratios. Gain key insights into the company for academic or business research. Key elements such as SWOT analysis, corporate strategy and financial ratios and charts are incorporated in the profile to assist your academic or business research needs.(www.baesystem.com)                                Why I Chose The Balance Scorecard To Calculate My Analysis In most cases big companies need different tools to evaluate overall performance. For instance, Company X may have supply department which needs logistic solutions, customer support service that need to solve customer’s problems, sales department, HR department and so on. As said above, different business areas have different KPIs. But all your departments should woks as one single whole. Thus, if sales department has imperfections, supply department cannot work 100% of its capacity. If HR department spend money inefficiently and cannot find new employees on time, you will suffer losses which will affect the entire company. Under such conditions, every department or business type should use Balanced Scorecard in its own way in terms of KPIs. Sales department must calculate number of new customers, while contact centre is taking care of first resolution rate (number of calls which solve customer’s problem from the first time). Balanced Scorecard will make you and your employees feel confident as you will be always informed on strengths and weakness of your company. At the same time, Balanced Scorecard will contribute to positive organization climate and help you establish a fair and comprehensive compensation system. Establish certain evaluation periods (for instance once or twice a month) and call overall meeting of the company with representatives of different department. Using Balanced Scorecard you will be able to summarize company performance and make smart decisions as to future development strategy. Of course, you know what to tell a head of logistic department if he always has several unused vehicles in his fleet. And you do know if customers are complaining that call center operators are sometimes incompetent to solve their problems. Balanced Scorecard is your reliable advisor in the changeable world of business. This is a MUST have tool for top managers, head of departments and companies, development managers, quality control specialists etc. 1. Profitability its ability to earn income and sustain growth in both short-term and long-term. A companys degree of profitability is usually based on the income statement , which reports on the companys results of operations; 2. Solvency its ability to pay its obligation to creditors and other third parties in the long-term; 3. Liquidity its ability to maintain positive cash flow, while satisfying immediate obligations; Both 2 and 3 are based on the companys balance sheet, which indicates the financial condition of a business as of a given point in time. 4. Stability the firms ability to remain in business in the long run, without having to sustain significant losses in the conduct of its business. Assessing a companys stability requires the use of both the income statement and the balance sheet, as well as other financial and non-financial indicators. Financial analysts often compare financial ratio (of solvency, profitability, growth, etc.): Past Performance Across historical time periods for the same firm (the last 5 years for example), Future Performance Using historical figures and certain mathematical and statistical techniques, including present and future values, this extrapolation method is the main source of errors in financial analysis as past statistics can be poor predictors of future prospects. Comparative Performance Comparison between similar firms. These ratios are calculated by dividing a (group of) account balance(s), taken from the balance sheet and / or the income statement by another, for example: Net income / equity = return on equity (ROE) Net income / total assets = return on assets (ROA) Stock price / earnings per share = P/E ratio Comparing financial ratios is merely one way of conducting financial analysis. Financial ratios face several theoretical challenges: They say little about the firms prospects in an absolute sense. Their insights about relative performance require a reference point from other time periods or similar firms. One ratio holds little meaning. As indicators, ratios can be logically interpreted in at least two ways. One can partially overcome this problem by combining several related ratios to paint a more comprehensive picture of the firms performance. Seasonal factors may prevent year-end values from being representative. A ratios values may be distorted as account balances change from the beginning to the end of an accounting period. Use average values for such accounts whenever possible. Financial ratios are no more objective than the accounting methods employed. Changes in accounting policies or choices can yield drastically different ratio values. They fail to account for exogenous factors like investor behaviour that are not based upon economic fundamentals of the firm or the general economy (fundamental analysis) [1]. Financial analysts can also use percentage analysis which involves reducing a series of figures as a percentage of some base amounts [2]. For example, a group of items can be expressed as a percentage of net income. When proportionate changes in the same figure over a given time period expressed as a percentage is known as horizontal analysis [3]. Vertical or common-size analysis reduces all items on a statement to a â€Å"common size†as a percentage of some base value which assists in comparability with other companies of different sizes [4]. Another method is comparative analysis. This provides a better way to determine trends. Comparative analysis presents the same information for two or more time periods and is presented side-by-side to allow for easy analysis.[5]  The Report This report is divided 2 chapters Chapter: 1 Analysis of ratio calculation Profitable ratio:  1. ROCE:- operating profits / capital employed x 100 2009= 982/4727 x 100 0.208 x 100 20.80% 2008=1718/7289 x 100 0.236 x 100 23.60% Companies can use these figure as a benchmark to see if they are making a good profit. BAE System would conclude that it’s ROCE (%) shows success relative to other firms both 2009 and 2008. However, the fall in the ration between 2009 and 2008 is a sign of a 2.80 % declined. 2. GROSS MARGIN:- gross profit/ sales x 100 2009= 779/ 20374 x 100 0.0382 x 100 3.82 % 2008= 1700/16671 x 100 0.1020 x 100 10.20 % This ratio must be treated with caution, as gross profit in the profit and loss account in sales minus costs. Since all of the overhead are ignored in this calculation, it is not as important a measure of success as net profit. However, the fall in the ration between 2009 and 2008 is a sign of a 6.38% declined. 3. NET PROFIT:- net profit / sales x 100 2009 = 982 / 20374 x 100 0.0482 x 100 4.82% 2008 = 1718 / 16671 x 100 0.103 x 100 10.30% The fall in the ration between 2009 and 2008 is a sign of a big declined. 2009 was 4.82 % and 2008 was 10.30 % so different between this two year are 5.48%. 4. ASSETS TRUNOVER:- sales / capital employed 2009 = 20374 / 4727 4.31 2008 = 16671 / 7289 2.29 Expressing the assets turnover ratio as so many times is traditional but the measure would be more meaningful if we called it pounds rather so many times. This ration is going up between 2009 and 2008 is a sign of a slight up. Means it’s up just only 2.02. LIQUIDITY RATIO:  1. CURRENT RATIO :- current assets / current liabilities 2009 = 8788 / 11993 0.73 2008 = 8069 / 10790 0.75 It should be noted that a maximum as well as minimum ratio is recommended. Too many current assets will limit a firm’s ability to purchase the fixed assets that are needed to produce the goods that provide the company’s profits. Consequently, a high current ratio may be an advantage in the short run but will inhibit the long term profitability of the company. Calculation of these ratio gives the result is 2009 and 2008 respectively 0.73 and 0.75 just slight declined. 2. QUICK RATIO(ACID TEST):- Quick assets / Current liabilities    2009 = 7901 / 11993 0.66 2008 = 7143 / 10790 0.66 The current ratio assumes that stocks and debtors are liquid assets. Firms cannot be certain that their stock will sell quickly, so that Acid test ratio is used as an alternative to the current ratio. The calculation of the Acid test ratio ignores stock in its calculation, considering only cash, bank balance and debtors as a liquid asset. Calculation of these ratio gives the result is 2009 and 2008 no change in this ratio. 3. RECEIVABLE DAYS: receivable / sales x 365                 2009 = 3764 / 20374 x 365 0.185 x 365 68 days 2008 = 3831 / 16671 x 365 0.23 x 365 84 days This is a ratio measuring the average time a companys customers take to pay for purchases, equal to accounts receivable divided by annual sales times 365. In this calculation we can see that this ratio is falling down by 16 bays it’s good signed for company. 4. PAYABLE DAYS: payable / purchase x 365 2009 = 10218 / 20060 x 365 0.57 x 365 186 days 2008 = 9165 / 15386 x 365 0.60 x 365 219 days This is a ratio measuring how long a company is taking to pay its trade creditors. It is calculated as: 365 * Accounts Payables divided by Cost of Goods Sold. In this calculation we can see that this ratio is falling down by 33 bays it’s good signed for company. 5. INVENTORY DAYS: inventory / cost of sales x 365 2009 = 887 / 20060 x 365 0.044 x 365 16 days   2008 = 926 / 15386 x 365 0.060 x 365 22 days This is a ratio measuring the number of days inventory is held. As a general rule, the longer inventory is held, the greater is its risk of not being sold at full value. It is calculated as: 365 * Inventory divided by Cost of Goods Sold   . In this calculation we can see that this ratio is falling down by 6 bays it’s good signed for company. Ratio to measure risk: 1. FINANCIAL GEARING: debt / equity 2009 = 20680 / 4655 4.44 2008 = 18386 / 7234 2.54 Shareholders ought to have the upper hand because if they dont that could cause them problems as follows: Shares earn dividends but in poor years dividends may be zero: that is, businesses dont always need to pay any! Long term liabilities are usually in the form of loans and they have to be paid interest; even in bad years the interest has to be paid Equity shareholders have the voting rights at general meetings and can made significant decisions Long term liability holders dont have any voting rights at general meetings but they have the power to override the wishes of the shareholders if there are severe problems over their interest or capital repayments So, shareholders like to see the gearing ratio, the relationship between long term liabilities and capital employed, being in their favour! A shareholder of company will be unhappy with this result .because the ration is going high 1.90.   2. DIVIDEND COVER: PAT / total dividend                    2009 = 45 / 573.6                                  0.008                    2008 = 1768 / 518                                  3.41  The dividend cover ratio tells us how easily a business can pay its dividend from profits. A high dividend cover means that the company can easily afford to pay the dividend and a low value means that the business might have difficulty paying a dividend. We can see in this calculation it’s fall in very biggest so it’s not a good news for shareholder. 3. INTEREDT COVER: PBIT / interest                    2009 = 282 / 22                                  12.82                    2008 = 2371/ 23                                  103.09 The interest cover ratio tells us the safety margin that the business has in terms of being able to meet its interest obligations. That is, a high interest cover ratio means that the business is easily able to meet its interest obligations from profits. Similarly, a low value for the interest cover ratio means that the business is potentially in danger of not being able to meet its interest obligations. Calculation of these ratio gives the result is 2009 and 2008 it’s big fall in this ratio. 4. OPERATING GEARING: fixed costs / variable costs 2009 = 203 / 282 0.72 2008 = 18 / 2371 0.008 Operational gearing is the effect of fixed cost on the relationship between sales and operating profits. If a company has no operational gearing, then operating profit would rise at the same rate as sales growth (assuming nothing else changed). Operational gearing is simple and important and often neglected. High fixed costs increase operational gearing. Calculation of these ratio gives the result is 2009 and 2008 it’s big rise in this ratio. Conclusion There is a lot to be said for valuing a company, it is no easy task. I hope that we have helped shed some light on this topic, and that you will use this information to make educated investment decisions. If you have any other questions about fundamental analysis please do not hesitate to Contact us. Ratios must not be ignored. They are still an excellent guide to performance. Conclusion should be based on the specific circumstance. In some cases, profitability ratios may be most important measure, but in emergencies, liquidity ration may be more significant. The problems and limitation involved in ration analysis should be borne in mind. References Introduction is available:    baesystems.com/AboutUs/FactSheet/index.htm Balance score card is available:    balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/AbouttheBalance   dSc   orecard/tabid/55/Default.aspx Key facts: Defense News Annual Ranking, published June 2010 Bob Ryan (2008), financial Accounting for business, 2nd education      .uk:    cengage learning college.p. 25-35. John Wolunski and Gwen Coates (2005) A2 Business studies. Kieso, D. E., Weygandt, J. J., Warfield, T. D. (2007). Intermediate      Accounting (12th Ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley Sons, p.      1320 ISBN 0-471-74955-9. Kieso, et al., 2007, p. 1320 Kieso, et al., 2007, p. 1320 Kieso, et al., 2007, p. 1319 Roy Dodge (1997) Foundation of business accounting. NA(2009) Ratio Analysis available.www.bized.co.uk. NA(2009) Ratio Analysis calculation available:www.skymark.com NA(2009) Ratio Analysis conclusion available:              www.measurebusiness.com www.marketresearch.com NA(2010) about bae system available    :http:en.wikipedia.org.
Monday, November 4, 2019
Write a critically essay on Liberalists view of International
Write a critically on Liberalists view of International relations.Are these views of any relevance in modern day worldJustify your answer - Essay Example These theories can be divided into two. Positivist and the post positivist theories. The difference between these two theories lies in the fact that while positivist theories such as, realism, liberalism, and neo liberalism aim at explaining the simple question of why and how power is exercised in the international realm, the post positivist theories mainly focus on the question of what power really is, what it is, how it is reproduced and/or experienced. (Introduction to international relations, 2008) The liberalists are those in support of the liberal theory/school of thought in international relations. There are various types of liberalism; interdependence, institutional or even sociological and republican liberalism. (Jackson & Sorensen, 2007) The theory has its basis on the idealism theory of international relations. The theory came about soon after World War 1 and is associated with such people as Woodrow Wilson and Emmanuel Kant. The theory sought to explain he causes of World War One and how it could be avoided in future. According to Woodrow Wilson, war only served to destroy. Thus, if countries could avoid war the better for them. They would gain more from the international cooperation than they would from any war. (Introduction to international relations, 2008) Thus, the liberal school of thought operates on certain core assumptions. The first and most fundamental premise of the liberal school of thought is the argument that the relationship that states have with other actors, state and non state, in the international community to a great extent shapes their behavior by influencing their preferences. To the liberalists, how states behave in the international arena has more to do with their preferences rather than their capabilities. Consequently, depending on such internal factors in states such as culture, the economic system or even the type of government therein, the preferences are likely to be different from state to
Saturday, November 2, 2019
Ethical Theories and National Security Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words
Ethical Theories and National Security - Essay Example In act utilitarianism, opinions of function are involved straightforwardly and openly to every option of the state of affairs. Consequently, the operation of performance bringing the finest and excellent effect is regarded as correct. Opinions of function in rule utilitarianism are incorporated in the determination of resolutions of the strength and legitimacy or ethical behavior (White and Klein 33). Therefore, in rule utilitarianism, an action is regarded as correct and acceptable or erroneous in regard to whether ethical behavior was involved or not. Deontological theories are principled assumptions creating particular rules of behavior and position the significance of whether an action is correct or erroneous in accordance to the rule of law and ethical standards. Deontology theories are categorized in to monistic and pluralistic deontology. Monistic deontology was proposed by Kant and it stipulates that deeds of accomplishment in compliance or meeting the requirements of being c orrect and legitimate conducted logically and under good judgment are considered the embodiment of ethically admirable and commendable deeds. However, on a critical point of view, monistic opinions lack an approach or technique or determining solutions to a disagreement. Under monistic deontology, a common rule may congeal to become an unconditional rule. Pluralistic deontology was postulated by W. D. Ross and he asserted that certain manifestations disclose various obligations and responsibilities that lack the capacity for attachment. These obligations are generally embraced (Pera and Tonder 31). Examples of these obligations include the need not to hurt others, to assist others, and to be truthful. Ethical egoism is categorized into psychological egoism and ethical egoism. According to the psychological egoism, individual’s acts and deeds of accomplishment are abridged self-centeredness. This theory asserts that people behave in particular ways with the expectation of bene fitting from that behavior. On a critical point of view, this theory is evocative and suggestive; therefore, it is prone to being refuted. The assertions in psychological egoism are also considered wide-ranging, and they affirm a diminutive assertion towards individual deeds of accomplishment. Ethical egoism on the other hand elucidates the fact that individual deeds should be conducted on self-centeredness perspective (Shafer-Landau 194). On a critical point of view, people have varying interest and hence an individual performing his deeds in accordance to his interest may not necessarily do so in consideration of other people. Ethical egoism and utilitarianism have some similarities in that in both deeds are done in accomplishing what is preeminent to an individual. Ethical theory to live by It is of significance for an individual to be governed by the assertions of a particular ethical theory. The most favorable theory to live by is psychological egoism. Psychological egoism posi ts that an individual is motivated to act or behave in a particular manner as a result of individual believes that that particular behavior or action will bear fruits. It shows that people act according to their individual interests. We live in a competitive and harsh world. People in the modern world have been faced with difficult financial situations. Therefore, to survive necessitates that one should first according to his needs and be optimistic his/her actions
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Bus 137 Alice Dred Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words
Bus 137 Alice Dred - Essay Example According to Sara Taylor who is a diversity expert and founder of deep SEE Consultant suggests that most managers are not always aware of the hidden biases they have when it comes to age, height, race or even marital status amongst others. Taylor further talked about height, weight, gender, and race and even how the employee is similar to the manager may have a great impact on salary earning, raises and even promotion. It has now come to attention that most CEOs in United States are highly offering jobs to men who are 6 feet tall or taller even though research indicates that the general U.S. population of tall men is just about 14.5%. The incident according to my opinion is discriminating most individuals within. The employers who use these hidden biases often influences people of what might be professional by trying to argue out that different communities have different cultures which some are opposite to others. He gives out explanations on how team leader’s desire to have tasks over relationships that is structured to work around interaction biasness. Such incident may negatively distinguish others with fondness of relationship. James Wright who is diversity and inclusion strategist, and who is also a trainer and the speaker witnessed some of the hidden discriminations used by some clients. He came to witness managers giving interviews to gays, lesbians. Some managers see this as human nature but some questions may again arise concerning if he/she has kids or partner. The question about when employees are discussing holiday gatherings, they always talk about bringing together their partners in cool water areas. The implication suggests that one need to be straight. I am suggesting that, with reference to Taylor statements, most clients’ gives out first priority to people with partners unlike to the lesbians and the gays. Wright research states that white men get more promotions vacancies compared to women and when a woman
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Macro Systems Paper Essay Example for Free
Macro Systems Paper Essay There are three types of service practices in the Social Work industry: Micro, Mezzo, and Macro. Social Work can be a very rewarding field to be involved in however, at the same time it can by very complex as well. Social workers will deal with many different issues and are around a lot of domestic and societal challenges. Some find out that they have a hard time dealing with the challenges and have to change the focus in their field. Social Work can be very empowering and rewarding when a worker helps a client find empowerment in their own life and the worker helps them get back on their feet. At the mezzo social work level the social worker usually works with families or small groups. Social workers on the micro level work with clients on an individual basis or one on one. This could be a Case Manager in a foster care facility. They will tend to the needs of the client or individual and assist them wherever they can. On the macro Social Work level the worker will be working with larger groups and larger organizations. A macro practice would be working to make new laws or change the current laws that slow the growth of the client population. If you decide to work in social services or are currently working in social services you will find yourself working the macro, micro and mezzo social work level. Social Work is great work. Many people choose this industry because they want to help people. They can see others pain and want to help relieve it. The social worker salary can very and unfortunately starts out lower on the typical American pay scale. The median expected salary for a social worker that has a 4-year degree in the field is around $46,500. If you continue your education and get a Masters in social work then the median becomes closer to $54,700.
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Conducting Quantitative Cost And Schedule Risk Analysis Construction Essay
Conducting Quantitative Cost And Schedule Risk Analysis Construction Essay Every single project, in fact, will face unexpected conditions during execution phase. These conditions have different impacts, improving or reducing project performance. If those conditions, especially the bad ones risks, are not well identified up front, they may potentially destroy the overall project execution. Project Risk Management is a world class process in identifying, assessing and developing plans to reduce or eliminate the risk impacts. In term of cost and schedule, this process prevents significant cost overrun and schedule slip by applying adequate contingency. One of Project Risk Management methodologies is Quantitative Risk Analysis. This study covers the combination of two AACE International Recommended Practices, Range Estimating and Expected Value, in conducting Quantitative Risk Analysis to determine the adequate contingency needed using simple Microsoft Excel ® spreadsheet. Range Estimating method is used to identify and examine project uncertainties on each project schedule task durations and project cost components and Expected Value for project specific risks. Utilizing Monte Carlo simulation, the combination resulted on the S-Curve which was more skewed to the right. It reduces the project likelihood to achieve objectives with baseline cost and schedule is reduced and more contingency is needed to cover identified risks and uncertainties. The combination of both methods is very useful for comprehensive quantitative risk analysis. It will help project team to specify, identify, examine and encompass overall risks and uncertainties aspects which potentially impact to project outcomes and support management decision in determining adequate contingency requirement. Introduction Successful project management requires strong leadership and organizational capability, good decision making process, achievable planning, effective communication, coordination and effective project control and monitoring of project execution. Effective combination of those requirements will guide the entire project team to carry out outstanding performance in achieving project objectives. As Project Management definition above; cost, schedule, quality and safety are project key performance indicators or targets which determine successful project execution or not. During project execution phase, naturally, there are a lot of situations and conditions which were not predicted and potentially impact to project performances especially for cost and schedule. Those situations and conditions are defined as project risks and uncertainties. In this case, project uncertainties are not only impact to worse outcome but potentially to better project outcome. Realizing those potential risks and uncertainties, a project team requires a good project planning with comprehensive process to manage those risks and uncertainties. This process is defined as Project Risk Management. In the following sections through the conclusion, the Author will discuss his perspective about: General project risk management How to prepare, develop and perform quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis How to combine Range Estimating and Expected Value method in quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis How to determine appropriate contingency level based on quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis result Project Risk Management Project risk management should have a good planning in order to make alignment among project team members and project stakeholders. Project risk management plan includes work flow and processes, risk factor screening matrix, risk owner determination including role and responsibly, monitoring and reporting. Usually each Corporation Company has their own standard project risk management process. This standard will be guidance, fit for purpose, for each project for developing specific risk management plan. Risk Assessment In this step, project team will identify all possible risks and uncertainties that may impact the project execution. A risk management workshop is usually held to review and capture potential project risks and uncertainties by brainstorming session. Depend on project size and complexity, beside project team members, other support teams, such as Supply Change Management, Government and Public Relation, Law, etc; experienced project teams which have similar project scope and experts are encouraged to participate in this workshop to gain values, alignment and perspectives. Risk Analysis After all possible project risks and uncertainties were identified, and then project team analyzes and assesses each risk qualitatively or quantitatively. For qualitative approach, project team will assign potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of each respected risk using risk factor screening matrix, shown on Figure 2, agreed in risk management plan. The combination between risk impact and likelihood will determine risk criticality category or level. One of quantitative approach is conducting cost and schedule risk analysis by developing cost and schedule model, assessing and determining variability (uncertainties range) of each point estimate, define project specific risk events and then using Monte Carlo simulation to provide cumulative probabilistic output (more commonly known as S-Curve), shown on Figure 3. Monte Carlo simulation helps project team and stakeholders understand the range uncertainties and likelihood of achieving the planned outcomes. This simulation also can provide sensitivity (tornado) diagram which represent project risk drivers (priority) of respected point estimate. Risk Mitigation Since not all risks have high (critical) level impact to project outcome, project team need to prioritize all analyzed risks. Then project team need to develop risk action plan including specific mitigation plan, associated timing and resources and assign risk owner to all prioritized high level impact risks. Then this process continues to action plan implementation. From Process Map for Risk Management, showed on Figure 1, we can see that project risk management is not only event based process but it is a continuous process that will improve project understanding on risks and uncertainties that potentially impact to project outcome. Project risk management is most effective if it is monitored, controlled and adjusted if required. Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis In project world, risks and uncertainties are translated as contingency. Contingency refers primarily to the amount of quantity of funds, time or other financial resources that is required to be allocated at and above the previously designated cost and schedule estimate amount to reduce the risk of overruns to an acceptable level for the financially. As mentioned above, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis utilizes Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo is one of technique and tool for risks and uncertainties analysis. This tool is used for generating probabilities through random sampling or iteration of all possible value of uncertainties and risks. The simulation result accuracy depends on number of iterations. The accuracy can be illustrated as follows: This method can support project team in quantifying project risks and uncertainties and determining appropriate contingency level. Using mathematical techniques and models, quantitative risk analysis numerically comes up with cumulative probabilistic result. This simulation result communicates potential risks and allows the management to select appropriate risk (contingency) level based on company approach. Without this valuable information, projects invested cost and schedule could be in corrected and causing underestimate which possibly came up with project overruns. This condition can possibly cause the project to require funding amendment to achieve project outcomes. There are several steps in conducting quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis: Developing cost and schedule models. Using Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) as starting point are best practices in analysis model development. The cost and schedule models should represent all project scopes. Determine associated risks and uncertainties variables of each cost or schedule elements From developed models, we determine associated risks and uncertainties on each cost and schedules elements. AACE International has published two Recommended Practices (RP) in conducting risk analysis and contingency determination. They are using range estimating RP 41R-08 and expected value RP 44R-08. Assign Probability Distribution Function for each cost or schedule elements Since we will use Monte Carlo simulation, we need to define possible values from risks and uncertainties variables determined from previous step. In this case, we have to define probability distribution of each cost and schedule elements. Triangular distribution is the most common probability distribution type used for cost and schedule variables. Assign correlation factor between related or depended cost or schedule elements Since there are possibilities of dependency of some cost or schedule elements, project team need to assign correlation factor between two or more elements. Correlation factor is defined from -1.0 to +1.0, where 0 indicates no correlation. Without appropriate data, correlation factor is quite difficult to determine. Analyze the models using Monte Carlo simulation Monte Carlo simulation will generate cumulative probabilistic curve (S-Curve) which shows alternative cost or schedule probabilities based on risks and uncertainties variables inputted. Besides producing this curve, Monte Carlo also able to communicate cost and schedule elements which drive uncertain result. This information is provided by Tornado Diagram, shown on Figure 4. Analyze simulation result and generate report The S-Curve communicates how likely our current (base) cost and schedule estimates are to over-run or under-run and how much contingency is needed to justify level of confidence of project to finish on time and on budget. Each company has own target and willingness to accept risks. As Tornado Diagram provides prioritized risk drivers information, project team need to develop mitigation plan to reduce amount of risks and uncertainties impact and likelihood of occurrence of respected risk drivers. As mentioned previously, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis should be conducted periodically. In line with mitigation plan progress, we expect that several risks and uncertainties impacts already have been reduced. By having continuous risk analysis and mitigation plan, it will maximize a projects chance to be delivered on time, on budget and safely. Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis for Appropriate Contingency Determination using Range Estimating and Expected Value Methods As described above, after we developed cost and schedule models, the next step is determining associated uncertainties and risks that as per experiences and data may influence and impact to project execution. AACE International recommends two methodologies in determining associated risks and uncertainties; they are Range Estimating and Expected Value. In Range Estimating method, the project team and other workshop participants will determine the ranges of each cost and schedule elements based on their knowledge, experiences of similar projects and any available data and/or benchmarking information. Utilizing triangular probability distribution function, the determined range will be iterated in Monte Carlo simulation to generate S-Curve. The Expected Value method is used to describe specific project risks that may impact project in specific condition or period of time. The Expected Value in its most basic form can be expressed as follows: If triangular probability distribution function is used for Range Estimating, Expected Value uses Bernoulli probability distribution function for representing the probability of risk occurring of project specific risk. In this section, the Author will illustrate the combination of both AACE International Recommended Practices by using simplified real project cost and schedule estimate data for developing the model, ranges and risk drivers with modified values and also Microsoft Excel with Crystal Ball as Monte Carlo simulation software. 4.1. Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis with Range Estimating and Expected Value Method The first step in performing quantitative schedule risk analysis is developing schedule model. The best approach in developing this model is by utilizing the Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule. By selecting critical path and near critical path tasks, we will be able to develop the model. The important thing in developing the schedule model, it should represent the entire project scopes. Developing a schedule model network diagram can help all workshop participants in understanding the model and guide the discussion in determining the uncertainties range and project specific risk of each schedule task. Since we use Microsoft Excel spreadsheet in this risk analysis, manual calculations and formulas are used to describe relationship between tasks and determine start and finish date of each task. To prevent logic change during risk analysis discussion, the schedule model should be understood and agreed ahead by all parties who involve in risk analysis. Once schedule model is developed, the next step is determining the uncertainties range of each schedule task. In AACEI RP 41R-08, this method is called as Range Estimating. The risk workshop participants will discuss and determine appropriate uncertainties range, shown in Table 2 with yellow highlights, of each task based on their experiences, judgment and available data. Remember to capture all related discussion during determining the range as workshop evidences and valuable information in the future. As described above, the next step, we have to determine Probability Distribution Function (PDF) for all task ranges and specific risks. In this project, we use triangular PDF for all task ranges, as shown in Figure 6. Once all schedule task ranges are done, then we need to check and determine additional project specific risks which potentially impact to specific project schedule task. In this project example, there are two project specific risks identified and all of them relate with procurement process. In Indonesia, all Oil and Gas Companies have to comply with Indonesian Executive Agency for Upstream Oil and Gas Industry (BPMIGAS) regulation in procurement process (PTK-007). Both project specific risks are retender on material (equipment) and contract procurement processes. Based on data from Supply Change Management (SCM) team, retender on material procurement will add 30 days with likelihood of occurrence is 15% and retender on EPCI contract procurement will add 60 days with likelihood of occurrence is 20%. We use Yes-No PDF for both specific risks represent likelihood of occurrence, as shown in Figure 7. Then material procurement retender risk is applied and tied-in to Major Equipment Bulk Procurement Process ID 4 and also EPCI contract procurement retender risk to EPCI Contract Procurement Process ID 6, as shown in Table 3 the same PDF is applied for Retender Material. After assigned correlation factors, we run the Monte Carlo simulation and come up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 8. From this figure, we can see the likelihood of achieving original project completion date (baseline schedule) is only around 25% of confidence level. If we compare this simulation result with simulation result without project specific risks, as shown in Figure 9, we can see there is approximately 14 days difference on P50 confidence level. It means that project specific risks impact to overall project duration, even though in this project example, the contribution is not significant. It is only 2% of total baseline duration. Using the S-Curve, the decision makers will be able to determine the contingency needed to achieve an expected confidence level. Each company typically has an expectation setting on level of acceptable risk tolerance or confidence level. The contingency level is determined by the difference between the acceptable confidence level and project baseline. If the Mean, represent as Expected Value, is selected as the acceptable level then the project schedule contingency is 72 days. Another advantage in Monte Carlo simulation is identification of high priority risks and uncertainties which drive uncertain simulation result. This information can be illustrated by Tornado Diagram, as shown in Figure 10. In this project example, uncertainties range of schedule tasks drive the project finish date. Since project specific risks have no significant impact to finish date, both risks are not considered as high priority project risk drivers. From Tornado Chart above, project team need to develop mitigation plan to reduce amount of uncertainties impact of respected risk drivers. 4.2. Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis with Range Estimating and Expected Value Method Similar like schedule risk analysis, the cost model can be developed from high level Cost Breakdown Structure. Each cost element is formed by the combination of unit amount (scope) and unit rate. The next step, we will determine uncertainties range of each cost element scope and rate and the result is as shown in Table 4. The triangular PDF is also applied to all cost elements. As we know that schedule slip or delay will contribute in increasing the cost. Several cost elements may depend on specific schedule tasks duration. It means that each cost element risks depends not only its components (scope and rate) but also from on respected duration uncertainties. The cost components uncertainties already determined by range estimating method above. Since specific schedule duration uncertainties potentially impact to specific cost elements, they can be utilized as project specific risks for cost risk analysis. From this project example, there are two schedule task durations are identified and impact to several cost elements as shown in Table 5. Both project specific risks information can be gathered from Schedule Risk Analysis simulation result. The Total Site Installation Duration is defined as all activity durations from Field Fabrication and Assembly until Commissioning Start Up. As Monte Carlo simulation, this project specific risk comes up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 11. From S-Curve above, we can calculate the difference between baseline duration and major percentiles, as shown in Table 6 yellow highlighted and use Triangular PDF for simulation later, as shown in Figure 12. The same method is applied for 2nd specific risk by using Figure 8, the total project duration. After assigned correlation factors, we run the Monte Carlo simulation and come up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 13. From this figure, we can see the likelihood of achieving original project completion date (baseline schedule) is only around 15% of confidence level. If we compare this simulation result with simulation result without project specific risks, as shown in Figure 14, we can see there is approximately US$ 1.2 million difference on P50 confidence level. It means that schedule duration uncertainties (specific risks) allocate significant impact to total project cost, with additional contingency 8%. From the Tornado Diagram, as shown in Figure 15, we can see that schedule duration uncertainties become the main risk driver of total project cost uncertainties, beside several cost components. This condition is concurred with above statement that schedule slip will contribute in increasing the cost. Conclusion The above simulation results show the implication of the combination between Range Estimating and Expected Value methods in conducting quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis. The combination of both methods will help project team to specify, identify, examine and encompass overall risks and uncertainties aspects which potentially impact to project outcomes and support management decision in determining adequate contingency requirement. The quality of quantitative risk analysis result depends on workshop participants knowledge, experiences of similar projects, judgments and any available data and/or benchmarking information. Poor quality analysis leads to inaccurate decision making. Realizing this condition, the quantitative risk analysis should be conducted periodically to ensure the validity of all risks information and effectiveness of mitigation plan. Effective Risk Management plan will improve the likelihood the project in achieving its goals.
Friday, October 25, 2019
Depreciation of the Candaian Dollar :: essays papers
Depreciation of the Candaian Dollar Canada has been increasing its prestige as a high-tech, industrial, society since the end of World War II. In many ways it resembles very closely its southern North American cousin, the United States. Some of those similarities are residing in its market-orientated system, pattern of production, and its high standard of living. Most years following the war up to the present, Canada has experienced some kind of continued growth as a prosperous and developed country. However, during the year of 1998, Canada experienced an unexpected large depreciation in their dollar relative to the United States. Late in August of that year, in fact, the value reached an all-time low. During this paper, I will try to present some of the possible economic factors that may or may not have led to this change in Canada’s exchange rate. I will also examine some additional analysis and theories as to why the trend possibly occurred. Exchange Rate As the year 1998 approached, the trend for the Canadian dollar was on a steady decrease in value in relation to the U.S. dollar. With each passing year the dollar lost some value as the table below demonstrates. Year 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 Exchange Rate 1.16 1.38 1.36 1.38 1.48 All data tables extrapolated from the Cambridge Forecasts Country Report, unless otherwise noted. It took an exceptional hit during the year, moving the rate from 1.38 U.S. dollars to 1.48 in U.S. dollars. The plunge is better exhibited in Appendix 1, with the sharp decrease of the dollar illustrated graphically and more specifically, with Appendix 2 showing the drop throughout the year of 1998 alone. Growth Rate In terms of growth rate, the years leading up to the exchange rate drop in 1998 showed very typical numbers. There was nothing out of the ordinary, or anything to hint at a sharp decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar. As highlighted below, up to 1998, the economy was growing at a slow but steady rate each year. Both the Total Gross Domestic Product and percentage of GDP real growth were increasing overall. Year 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 GDP (bill. of U.S. $) 573966 584044 611602 631193 603978 Year 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 GDP Real Growth (%) N/A 2.3 1.6 3.7 3.1 However as the numbers for 1998 indicate, the depreciation of the dollar definitely took a significant chunk out of the Total Gross Domestic Product, dropping it below 1996’s levels.
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